Defensor Sporting Reserves vs Club Atletico Progreso Reserves

28 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.2 pp

Defensor Sporting Reserves

Club Atletico Progreso Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.8% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 20.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.7% 1.80 DRAW 24.5% 3.80 AWAY 23.9% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Defensor Sporting Reserves clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.8% win probability, compared with 51.7% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensor Sporting Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Defensor Sporting Reserves Club Atletico Progreso Reserves

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Defensor Sporting Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Defensor Sporting Reserves Club Atletico Progreso Reserves

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Defensor Sporting Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Defensor Sporting Reserves Club Atletico Progreso Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Defensor Sporting Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Defensor Sporting Reserves = (0.0%)

Club Atletico Progreso Reserves ↑ +0.35 (+9.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.