Japan (W) vs South Korea (W)

29 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Japan (W)

South Korea (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.6% DRAW 14.8% AWAY 7.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.8% 1.27 DRAW 16.4% 5.80 AWAY 8.8% 10.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Japan (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.6% win probability, compared with 74.8% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Japan (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Japan (W) South Korea (W)

Shots 21.0 · On target 11.5 Shots 17.3 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Japan (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Japan (W) South Korea (W)

Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.8 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Japan (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Japan (W) South Korea (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Japan (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Japan (W) ↑ +0.06 (+5.0%)

South Korea (W) ↓ -1.50 (-11.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.