North Korea (W) vs China PR (W)

29 Sep 2026 · 08:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

North Korea (W)

China PR (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.2% DRAW 20.5% AWAY 11.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.0% 1.42 DRAW 22.0% 4.20 AWAY 13.0% 7.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for North Korea (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 68.2% win probability, compared with 65.0% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

North Korea (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

North Korea (W) China PR (W)

Shots 22.0 · On target 12.5 Shots 21.0 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours North Korea (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

North Korea (W) China PR (W)

Shots allowed 1.0 · On target allowed 0.5 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.5

North Korea (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

North Korea (W) China PR (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours North Korea (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

North Korea (W) ↓ -0.03 (-2.3%)

China PR (W) ↑ +0.18 (+2.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.