Pogon Szczecin vs Udinese

26 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Pogon Szczecin

Udinese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.1% DRAW 27.6% AWAY 43.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.9% 3.77 DRAW 27.2% 3.59 AWAY 47.0% 2.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Pogon Szczecin relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.1% win probability, compared with 25.9% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Pogon Szczecin has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pogon Szczecin Udinese

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pogon Szczecin Udinese

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Pogon Szczecin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pogon Szczecin Udinese

The combined recent performance profile favours Pogon Szczecin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Pogon Szczecin ↑ +0.12 (+3.1%)

Udinese ↑ +0.18 (+9.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.