Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain vs Al Dhaid

28 Sep 2026 · 16:40

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

Al Dhaid

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.9% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 28.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.5% 2.18 DRAW 25.7% 3.70 AWAY 30.8% 3.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.9% win probability, compared with 43.5% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain Al Dhaid

Shots 14.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain Al Dhaid

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain Al Dhaid

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Al Arabi Umm Al Quwain ↑ +0.08 (+3.8%)

Al Dhaid ↑ +0.38 (+14.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.