Zaragoza CFF (W) vs Balears FC (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Zaragoza CFF (W)

Balears FC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.0% DRAW 27.4% AWAY 24.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.3% 2.06 DRAW 28.1% 3.25 AWAY 27.6% 3.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Zaragoza CFF (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.0% win probability, compared with 44.3% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Zaragoza CFF (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Zaragoza CFF (W) Balears FC (W)

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 2.3 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Zaragoza CFF (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Zaragoza CFF (W) Balears FC (W)

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Zaragoza CFF (W) Balears FC (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Zaragoza CFF (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Zaragoza CFF (W) ↑ +0.04 (+2.0%)

Balears FC (W) ↓ -0.14 (-3.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.