Selva Cañera vs Zapata

26 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.4 pp

Selva Cañera

Zapata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.0% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 30.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.6% 2.51 DRAW 26.2% 3.60 AWAY 36.3% 2.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Selva Cañera substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.0% win probability, compared with 37.6% implied by the market. The 6.4 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Selva Cañera has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Selva Cañera Zapata

Shots 14.3 · On target 8.3 Shots 4.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Selva Cañera, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Selva Cañera Zapata

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Selva Cañera Zapata

The combined recent performance profile favours Selva Cañera.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Selva Cañera ↑ +0.36 (+16.7%)

Zapata ↓ -0.10 (-3.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.