Cefor 30-30 vs Ciervos FC II

26 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Cefor 30-30

Ciervos FC II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.1% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 20.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.8% 1.51 DRAW 20.0% 4.75 AWAY 17.2% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ciervos FC II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 20.9% win probability, compared with 17.2% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ciervos FC II has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cefor 30-30 Ciervos FC II

Shots 4.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Ciervos FC II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cefor 30-30 Ciervos FC II

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Ciervos FC II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cefor 30-30 Ciervos FC II

The combined recent performance profile favours Ciervos FC II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Cefor 30-30 ↓ -0.64 (-29.8%)

Ciervos FC II ↑ +2.88 (+109.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.