Cruz Azul U19 vs Toluca U19

26 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Cruz Azul U19

Toluca U19

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 16.7% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 57.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.5% 4.97 DRAW 26.6% 3.65 AWAY 53.9% 1.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Toluca U19 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.8% win probability, compared with 53.9% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Toluca U19 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cruz Azul U19 Toluca U19

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Toluca U19, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cruz Azul U19 Toluca U19

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Toluca U19 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cruz Azul U19 Toluca U19

The combined recent performance profile favours Toluca U19.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Cruz Azul U19 ↑ +1.47 (+42.0%)

Toluca U19 ↓ -0.05 (-2.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.