Rodelindo Roman vs Naval

26 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Rodelindo Roman

Naval

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.5% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 39.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.9% 3.40 DRAW 29.2% 3.25 AWAY 42.9% 2.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Rodelindo Roman relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.5% win probability, compared with 27.9% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Rodelindo Roman

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rodelindo Roman Naval

Shots 11.3 · On target 7.0 Shots 7.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Rodelindo Roman, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rodelindo Roman Naval

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 7.8 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 8.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rodelindo Roman Naval

The combined recent performance profile favours Rodelindo Roman.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Rodelindo Roman ↓ -1.60 (-32.0%)

Naval ↓ -0.12 (-5.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.