Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Chapecoense

26 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.1 pp

Atletico Nacional Medellin

Chapecoense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.0% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 28.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.0% 2.10 DRAW 23.0% 4.10 AWAY 32.0% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Atletico Nacional Medellin clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.0% win probability, compared with 45.0% implied by the market. The 5.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Atletico Nacional Medellin

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Nacional Medellin Chapecoense

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 14.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Nacional Medellin Chapecoense

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Atletico Nacional Medellin has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Nacional Medellin Chapecoense

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional Medellin.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico Nacional Medellin ↑ +0.12 (+6.1%)

Chapecoense = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.