Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Navalcarnero

Real Murcia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.9% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 49.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.2% 3.80 DRAW 25.0% 3.82 AWAY 49.8% 1.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Murcia

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Navalcarnero Real Murcia

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Navalcarnero Real Murcia

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Navalcarnero Real Murcia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Navalcarnero ↑ +0.40 (+11.8%)

Real Murcia ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.