AC Nardo vs Martina

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.5 pp

AC Nardo

Martina

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.8% DRAW 29.8% AWAY 43.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.9% 2.92 DRAW 30.1% 3.09 AWAY 38.0% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Martina clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.5% win probability, compared with 38.0% implied by the market. The 5.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Martina has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AC Nardo Martina

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Martina, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AC Nardo Martina

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Martina has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AC Nardo Martina

The combined recent performance profile favours Martina.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

AC Nardo ↓ -0.28 (-8.8%)

Martina ↑ +0.30 (+14.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.