Vanuatu vs New Caledonia

27 Sep 2026 · 06:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Vanuatu

New Caledonia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 34.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% 2.78 DRAW 26.6% 3.72 AWAY 37.9% 2.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Vanuatu relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.2% win probability, compared with 35.6% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Vanuatu

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vanuatu New Caledonia

Shots 7.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vanuatu New Caledonia

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Vanuatu has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vanuatu New Caledonia

The combined recent performance profile favours Vanuatu.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Vanuatu ↓ -0.17 (-5.9%)

New Caledonia ↑ +0.36 (+16.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.