New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC

01 Oct 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

New York Red Bulls

St. Louis City SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.8% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 55.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.8% 3.79 DRAW 22.3% 4.38 AWAY 51.9% 1.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for St. Louis City SC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.2% win probability, compared with 51.9% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

St. Louis City SC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

New York Red Bulls St. Louis City SC

Shots 10.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours St. Louis City SC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

New York Red Bulls St. Louis City SC

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 2.3

St. Louis City SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

New York Red Bulls St. Louis City SC

The combined recent performance profile favours St. Louis City SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

New York Red Bulls ↓ -0.13 (-3.4%)

St. Louis City SC ↑ +0.03 (+1.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.