Russia vs Iran

29 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Russia

Iran

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.4% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 20.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.1% 1.92 DRAW 26.7% 3.67 AWAY 22.2% 4.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Iran

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Russia Iran

Shots 3.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Iran, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Russia Iran

Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Russia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Russia Iran

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Russia ↑ +0.10 (+5.7%)

Iran ↑ +0.32 (+7.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.