Mar de Fondo vs IA Sud America

27 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Mar de Fondo

IA Sud America

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.8% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 29.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.0% 2.29 DRAW 28.2% 3.25 AWAY 31.8% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mar de Fondo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.8% win probability, compared with 40.0% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Mar de Fondo

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mar de Fondo IA Sud America

Shots 12.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mar de Fondo IA Sud America

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 7.0

Mar de Fondo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mar de Fondo IA Sud America

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Mar de Fondo ↓ -0.26 (-10.2%)

IA Sud America ↑ +0.33 (+12.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.