Aracaju SE U20 vs Falcon SE U20

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Aracaju SE U20

Falcon SE U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.8% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 67.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 12.9% 7.08 DRAW 21.7% 4.20 AWAY 65.5% 1.39

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Falcon SE U20

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aracaju SE U20 Falcon SE U20

Shots 5.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 14.8 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Falcon SE U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aracaju SE U20 Falcon SE U20

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Aracaju SE U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aracaju SE U20 Falcon SE U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Falcon SE U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Aracaju SE U20 ↑ +0.58 (+8.9%)

Falcon SE U20 ↓ -0.03 (-2.1%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.