NK Maribor vs HNK Gorica

28 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

NK Maribor

HNK Gorica

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.8% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 24.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.4% 2.00 DRAW 25.3% 3.67 AWAY 28.2% 3.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates NK Maribor clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.8% win probability, compared with 46.4% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

NK Maribor has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

NK Maribor HNK Gorica

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NK Maribor HNK Gorica

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.3

NK Maribor has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NK Maribor HNK Gorica

The combined recent performance profile favours NK Maribor.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

NK Maribor ↑ +0.09 (+4.9%)

HNK Gorica ↑ +0.05 (+1.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.