Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) vs Club Guarani (W)

28 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W)

Club Guarani (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 12.6% DRAW 15.8% AWAY 71.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.6% 6.33 DRAW 17.6% 5.25 AWAY 67.8% 1.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Club Guarani (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 71.7% win probability, compared with 67.8% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Club Guarani (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Club Guarani (W)

Shots 9.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 18.5 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours Club Guarani (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Club Guarani (W)

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Club Guarani (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) Club Guarani (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Club Guarani (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Sportivo San Lorenzo (W) ↑ +1.08 (+20.6%)

Club Guarani (W) = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.