Cetes FC vs Deportivo Union Aguadulce

28 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.1 pp

Cetes FC

Deportivo Union Aguadulce

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.3% DRAW 16.4% AWAY 14.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.2% 1.42 DRAW 18.9% 4.75 AWAY 17.9% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Cetes FC substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.3% win probability, compared with 63.2% implied by the market. The 6.1 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Cetes FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cetes FC Deportivo Union Aguadulce

Shots 11.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cetes FC Deportivo Union Aguadulce

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 21.0 · On target allowed 11.0

Cetes FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cetes FC Deportivo Union Aguadulce

The combined recent performance profile favours Cetes FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cetes FC = (0.0%)

Deportivo Union Aguadulce = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.