Sportivo Luqueno Reserves vs Club Guarani Reserves

28 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves

Club Guarani Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.4% DRAW 22.8% AWAY 59.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 16.9% 5.55 DRAW 22.9% 4.10 AWAY 60.2% 1.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sportivo Luqueno Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves Club Guarani Reserves

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 6.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Sportivo Luqueno Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves Club Guarani Reserves

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Club Guarani Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves Club Guarani Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves ↑ +0.80 (+16.8%)

Club Guarani Reserves ↑ +0.03 (+1.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.