Envigado U19 vs Atletico Nacional Medellin U19

28 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Envigado U19

Atletico Nacional Medellin U19

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.4% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 47.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.4% 3.04 DRAW 25.7% 3.60 AWAY 44.0% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atletico Nacional Medellin U19 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.8% win probability, compared with 44.0% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico Nacional Medellin U19 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Envigado U19 Atletico Nacional Medellin U19

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.5 Shots 13.0 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Envigado U19 Atletico Nacional Medellin U19

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.5

Atletico Nacional Medellin U19 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Envigado U19 Atletico Nacional Medellin U19

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Nacional Medellin U19.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Envigado U19 ↑ +0.14 (+4.8%)

Atletico Nacional Medellin U19 ↑ +0.05 (+2.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.