Benin vs Mauritania

29 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Benin

Mauritania

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.3% DRAW 30.9% AWAY 33.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.7% 2.50 DRAW 30.6% 3.00 AWAY 32.8% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Mauritania

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Benin Mauritania

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Benin Mauritania

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Mauritania has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Benin Mauritania

The combined recent performance profile favours Mauritania.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Benin ↑ +0.05 (+2.0%)

Mauritania = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.