Italy U19 vs Türkiye U19

28 Sep 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Italy U19

Türkiye U19

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 71.6% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 8.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.0% 1.40 DRAW 21.0% 4.60 AWAY 10.1% 9.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Italy U19 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 71.6% win probability, compared with 69.0% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Italy U19 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Italy U19 Türkiye U19

Shots 14.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Italy U19, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Italy U19 Türkiye U19

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Italy U19 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Italy U19 Türkiye U19

The combined recent performance profile favours Italy U19.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Italy U19 = (0.0%)

Türkiye U19 ↑ +3.35 (+53.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.