Hendon vs Ashford Town (Middx)

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Hendon

Ashford Town (Middx)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% DRAW 19.3% AWAY 21.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.7% 1.71 DRAW 21.0% 4.54 AWAY 23.3% 4.09

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hendon relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.6% win probability, compared with 55.7% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Hendon

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hendon Ashford Town (Middx)

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Ashford Town (Middx), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hendon Ashford Town (Middx)

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.5

Hendon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hendon Ashford Town (Middx)

The combined recent performance profile favours Hendon.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Hendon ↑ +0.06 (+3.7%)

Ashford Town (Middx) ↑ +0.29 (+7.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.