Derby Reserves vs Rotherham Reserves

29 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Derby Reserves

Rotherham Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.0% DRAW 19.9% AWAY 24.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.9% 1.70 DRAW 21.2% 4.33 AWAY 24.9% 3.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Derby Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Derby Reserves Rotherham Reserves

Shots 11.0 · On target 6.5 Shots 0.8 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Derby Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Derby Reserves Rotherham Reserves

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 0.5 · On target allowed 0.3

Rotherham Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Derby Reserves Rotherham Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Derby Reserves = (0.0%)

Rotherham Reserves ↑ +0.28 (+8.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.