Loughborough University vs Basford Utd

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Loughborough University

Basford Utd

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.5% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 28.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.1% 2.20 DRAW 26.2% 3.62 AWAY 30.8% 3.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Loughborough University relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.5% win probability, compared with 43.1% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Loughborough University has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Loughborough University Basford Utd

Shots 16.0 · On target 7.3 Shots 13.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Loughborough University Basford Utd

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.5

Loughborough University has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Loughborough University Basford Utd

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Loughborough University ↑ +0.05 (+2.3%)

Basford Utd ↑ +0.46 (+17.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.