Mawlai SC vs Meghalaya Police

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Mawlai SC

Meghalaya Police

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.5% DRAW 18.6% AWAY 14.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.4% 1.43 DRAW 20.1% 4.50 AWAY 16.5% 5.49

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mawlai SC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.5% win probability, compared with 63.4% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Meghalaya Police

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mawlai SC Meghalaya Police

Shots 7.8 · On target 1.8 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Meghalaya Police, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mawlai SC Meghalaya Police

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 9.3

Mawlai SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mawlai SC Meghalaya Police

The combined recent performance profile favours Mawlai SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Mawlai SC ↓ -0.14 (-9.0%)

Meghalaya Police ↑ +1.29 (+30.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.