Papua New Guinea (W) vs Solomon Islands (W)

29 Sep 2026 · 06:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Papua New Guinea (W)

Solomon Islands (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.3% DRAW 19.9% AWAY 9.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.2% 1.41 DRAW 20.5% 4.75 AWAY 10.3% 9.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Solomon Islands (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Papua New Guinea (W) Solomon Islands (W)

Shots 5.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 8.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Solomon Islands (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Papua New Guinea (W) Solomon Islands (W)

Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Papua New Guinea (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Papua New Guinea (W) Solomon Islands (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Papua New Guinea (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Papua New Guinea (W) ↓ -0.04 (-2.4%)

Solomon Islands (W) ↑ +3.50 (+58.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.