Fiji (W) vs New Caledonia (W)

29 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Fiji (W)

New Caledonia (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.2% DRAW 17.8% AWAY 14.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.5% 1.38 DRAW 18.7% 5.00 AWAY 13.8% 6.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Fiji (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fiji (W) New Caledonia (W)

Shots 4.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 1.8 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Fiji (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fiji (W) New Caledonia (W)

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fiji (W) New Caledonia (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Fiji (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fiji (W) ↑ +0.08 (+6.2%)

New Caledonia (W) ↑ +0.25 (+3.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.