Bulgaria U19 vs Romania U19

29 Sep 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Bulgaria U19

Romania U19

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 37.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.0% 2.95 DRAW 27.0% 3.50 AWAY 41.0% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bulgaria U19 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.6% win probability, compared with 32.0% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bulgaria U19 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bulgaria U19 Romania U19

Shots 12.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Bulgaria U19, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bulgaria U19 Romania U19

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Bulgaria U19 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bulgaria U19 Romania U19

The combined recent performance profile favours Bulgaria U19.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bulgaria U19 ↑ +0.04 (+1.4%)

Romania U19 ↓ -0.02 (-0.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.