Mohun Bagan SG vs Northeast United

29 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Mohun Bagan SG

Northeast United

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.2% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 14.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.4% 1.53 DRAW 21.3% 4.50 AWAY 16.3% 5.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mohun Bagan SG relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.2% win probability, compared with 62.4% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Mohun Bagan SG

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mohun Bagan SG Northeast United

Shots 20.0 · On target 7.3 Shots 12.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Mohun Bagan SG, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mohun Bagan SG Northeast United

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Mohun Bagan SG has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mohun Bagan SG Northeast United

The combined recent performance profile favours Mohun Bagan SG.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Mohun Bagan SG = (0.0%)

Northeast United ↑ +1.68 (+40.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.