Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados

29 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +6.2 pp

Ejidatarios de Bonfil

Deportiva Venados

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.9% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 39.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% 2.30 DRAW 25.0% 3.82 AWAY 33.6% 2.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Deportiva Venados substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.8% win probability, compared with 33.6% implied by the market. The 6.2 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Deportiva Venados has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ejidatarios de Bonfil Deportiva Venados

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 16.8 · On target 10.0

Recent attacking output favours Deportiva Venados, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ejidatarios de Bonfil Deportiva Venados

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Deportiva Venados has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ejidatarios de Bonfil Deportiva Venados

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportiva Venados.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ejidatarios de Bonfil ↓ -0.30 (-11.5%)

Deportiva Venados ↑ +0.59 (+26.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.