Cerro Porteno (W) vs Libertad Limpeno (W)

29 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Cerro Porteno (W)

Libertad Limpeno (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.1% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 56.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.4% 4.07 DRAW 22.9% 4.17 AWAY 53.7% 1.78

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Libertad Limpeno (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cerro Porteno (W) Libertad Limpeno (W)

Shots 15.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 18.0 · On target 9.8

Recent attacking output favours Libertad Limpeno (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cerro Porteno (W) Libertad Limpeno (W)

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 1.3

Libertad Limpeno (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cerro Porteno (W) Libertad Limpeno (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Libertad Limpeno (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Cerro Porteno (W) ↑ +0.57 (+16.1%)

Libertad Limpeno (W) ↑ +0.05 (+2.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.