Yunnan Yukun U20 vs Jiangxi Lushan U20

30 Sep 2026 · 08:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.0 pp

Yunnan Yukun U20

Jiangxi Lushan U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.0% DRAW 15.4% AWAY 7.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.0% 1.32 DRAW 17.9% 5.33 AWAY 10.1% 9.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Yunnan Yukun U20 clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.0% win probability, compared with 72.0% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Yunnan Yukun U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Yunnan Yukun U20 Jiangxi Lushan U20

Shots 14.0 · On target 8.3 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Yunnan Yukun U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Yunnan Yukun U20 Jiangxi Lushan U20

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Yunnan Yukun U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Yunnan Yukun U20 Jiangxi Lushan U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Yunnan Yukun U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Yunnan Yukun U20 ↓ -0.40 (-23.3%)

Jiangxi Lushan U20 ↑ +5.60 (+147.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.