DC United vs Paderborn

01 Oct 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.4 pp

DC United

Paderborn

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 42.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.6% 3.30 DRAW 23.6% 4.13 AWAY 46.8% 2.09

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates DC United clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.0% win probability, compared with 29.6% implied by the market. The 4.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: DC United

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

DC United Paderborn

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours DC United, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

DC United Paderborn

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

DC United Paderborn

The combined recent performance profile favours DC United.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

DC United ↓ -0.09 (-2.9%)

Paderborn ↑ +0.58 (+31.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.