Croatia U19 vs Italy U19

01 Oct 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Croatia U19

Italy U19

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.3% DRAW 24.5% AWAY 45.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.1% 2.91 DRAW 25.3% 3.80 AWAY 41.6% 2.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Italy U19 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 45.2% win probability, compared with 41.6% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Italy U19 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Croatia U19 Italy U19

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Italy U19, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Croatia U19 Italy U19

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Italy U19 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Croatia U19 Italy U19

The combined recent performance profile favours Italy U19.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Croatia U19 ↓ -0.29 (-9.1%)

Italy U19 ↑ +0.41 (+21.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.