Cristobal Colon JAS vs River Plate Asuncion

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Cristobal Colon JAS

River Plate Asuncion

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.6% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 64.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 16.4% 5.80 DRAW 22.1% 4.30 AWAY 61.4% 1.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for River Plate Asuncion relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.5% win probability, compared with 61.4% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

River Plate Asuncion has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cristobal Colon JAS River Plate Asuncion

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours River Plate Asuncion, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cristobal Colon JAS River Plate Asuncion

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.5

River Plate Asuncion has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cristobal Colon JAS River Plate Asuncion

The combined recent performance profile favours River Plate Asuncion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Cristobal Colon JAS ↑ +0.60 (+11.5%)

River Plate Asuncion ↑ +0.02 (+1.1%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.