Grays Athletic vs Takeley

30 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Grays Athletic

Takeley

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.6% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 34.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.6% 2.53 DRAW 24.7% 3.84 AWAY 37.6% 2.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Grays Athletic relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.6% win probability, compared with 37.6% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Takeley

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Grays Athletic Takeley

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Takeley, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Grays Athletic Takeley

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 7.0

Grays Athletic has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Grays Athletic Takeley

The combined recent performance profile favours Grays Athletic.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Grays Athletic ↑ +0.58 (+29.5%)

Takeley ↓ -0.68 (-21.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.