Seychelles vs Sri Lanka

30 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Seychelles

Sri Lanka

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.8% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 41.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.3% 3.27 DRAW 28.9% 3.43 AWAY 40.8% 2.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sri Lanka has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Seychelles Sri Lanka

Shots 4.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Sri Lanka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Seychelles Sri Lanka

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Seychelles Sri Lanka

The combined recent performance profile favours Sri Lanka.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Seychelles ↓ -0.03 (-0.8%)

Sri Lanka ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.