Fiji vs New Caledonia

30 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Fiji

New Caledonia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.3% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 20.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% 1.72 DRAW 22.6% 4.20 AWAY 22.1% 4.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Fiji relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.3% win probability, compared with 55.3% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: New Caledonia

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fiji New Caledonia

Shots 3.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours New Caledonia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fiji New Caledonia

Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.3

Fiji has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fiji New Caledonia

The combined recent performance profile favours Fiji.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fiji ↑ +0.04 (+2.3%)

New Caledonia ↑ +0.10 (+2.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.