CA San Telmo Reserves vs CA Atlanta Reserves

30 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

CA San Telmo Reserves

CA Atlanta Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.4% DRAW 27.6% AWAY 40.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.9% 2.66 DRAW 27.9% 3.41 AWAY 36.2% 2.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CA Atlanta Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.0% win probability, compared with 36.2% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CA Atlanta Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA San Telmo Reserves CA Atlanta Reserves

Shots 5.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours CA Atlanta Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA San Telmo Reserves CA Atlanta Reserves

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.5

CA Atlanta Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA San Telmo Reserves CA Atlanta Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours CA Atlanta Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CA San Telmo Reserves ↑ +0.28 (+11.6%)

CA Atlanta Reserves = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.