Corby vs Carlton Town

30 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Corby

Carlton Town

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.3% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 50.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.3% 3.30 DRAW 22.7% 4.26 AWAY 48.0% 2.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Carlton Town has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Corby Carlton Town

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Corby Carlton Town

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Carlton Town has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Corby Carlton Town

The combined recent performance profile favours Carlton Town.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Corby ↑ +0.30 (+10.0%)

Carlton Town ↑ +0.01 (+0.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.