Rugby Borough vs Bourne Town

30 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Rugby Borough

Bourne Town

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.3% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 28.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.5% 2.05 DRAW 24.7% 3.95 AWAY 27.8% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Rugby Borough

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rugby Borough Bourne Town

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 4.8 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Rugby Borough, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rugby Borough Bourne Town

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Bourne Town has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rugby Borough Bourne Town

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Rugby Borough ↑ +0.35 (+20.6%)

Bourne Town ↓ -0.20 (-5.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.