Aylesbury United vs Waltham Abbey

30 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Aylesbury United

Waltham Abbey

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.7% DRAW 20.4% AWAY 54.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 20.8% 5.05 DRAW 20.5% 5.13 AWAY 58.7% 1.79

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Aylesbury United relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 24.7% win probability, compared with 20.8% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Aylesbury United

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aylesbury United Waltham Abbey

Shots 13.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Aylesbury United, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aylesbury United Waltham Abbey

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.5 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 7.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aylesbury United Waltham Abbey

The combined recent performance profile favours Aylesbury United.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Aylesbury United ↑ +1.65 (+48.5%)

Waltham Abbey ↓ -0.01 (-0.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.