Papua New Guinea vs Solomon Islands

30 Sep 2026 · 06:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% DRAW 29.3% AWAY 37.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.4% 2.80 DRAW 29.2% 3.20 AWAY 37.4% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Solomon Islands

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Solomon Islands, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 7.3

Papua New Guinea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Papua New Guinea ↑ +0.10 (+3.7%)

Solomon Islands ↑ +0.05 (+2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.