Burgos (W) vs Cacereno (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Burgos (W)

Cacereno (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.7% DRAW 26.9% AWAY 44.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.0% 3.60 DRAW 26.4% 3.40 AWAY 48.6% 1.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Burgos (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.7% win probability, compared with 25.0% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Burgos (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Burgos (W) Cacereno (W)

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Burgos (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Burgos (W) Cacereno (W)

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 0.8

Cacereno (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Burgos (W) Cacereno (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Burgos (W) = (0.0%)

Cacereno (W) = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.