Crusaders Reserves vs Dungannon Swifts Reserves

30 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.9 pp

Crusaders Reserves

Dungannon Swifts Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.9% DRAW 20.1% AWAY 27.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.3% 1.75 DRAW 20.6% 4.79 AWAY 23.2% 4.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dungannon Swifts Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 27.0% win probability, compared with 23.2% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Dungannon Swifts Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Crusaders Reserves Dungannon Swifts Reserves

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 15.8 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output favours Dungannon Swifts Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Crusaders Reserves Dungannon Swifts Reserves

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Crusaders Reserves Dungannon Swifts Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Dungannon Swifts Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Crusaders Reserves ↑ +0.05 (+3.0%)

Dungannon Swifts Reserves ↑ +0.95 (+28.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.