Sportivo Luqueno (W) vs Deportivo Recoleta (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Sportivo Luqueno (W)

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.3% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 55.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.5% 4.43 DRAW 20.4% 4.69 AWAY 58.1% 1.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sportivo Luqueno (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 24.3% win probability, compared with 21.5% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Deportivo Recoleta (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Luqueno (W) Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Shots 3.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 6.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Recoleta (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Luqueno (W) Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 20.3 · On target allowed 8.3

Sportivo Luqueno (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Luqueno (W) Deportivo Recoleta (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Sportivo Luqueno (W) ↑ +0.43 (+10.6%)

Deportivo Recoleta (W) ↑ +0.03 (+1.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.